Last Weekend's Recap:
So let's start by talking about last weekend. Much to my surprise, Goosebumps dethroned The Martian to take the number one spot at the domestic box office with 23.6 million versus 21.3 million respectively. If you would have told me this a month ago, I would have laughed it off since the initial previews came off as incredibly uninspired and phoned in. But apparently, Sony decided to save the good content for the actual movie and the reviews for this were actually good. With that in mind, now I feel like Sony could have left money on the table when it came to advertising this. Plus if this was released a week earlier, the opening could have been larger as well. But alas, this is still going to be a profitable movie for Sony which is having a very good fall box office season so far.
Our other two new releases were Bridge of Spies and Crimson Peak as both finished third and fourth with 15.3 million and 13.1 million. Both were somewhat underwhelming, but I feel like not all hope is loss with both. Bridge of Spies actually made more than it should have due to amazing reviews and it's two stars Tom Hanks and director Steven Spielberg. Any other film dealing with the subject matter handled here would have made much less. Plus with the solid word of mouth and eventual Oscar consideration, this can definitely earn back it's 40 million budget. Crimson Peak is trickier since it cost more to make and due to the horror movie oversaturation coming. But with director Guillermo Del Toro having an oversea following more so than domestic, not all hope is lost. It's a slight misfire for Universal, who has made enough money to not be in the red for at least the next year no matter how many misses they might have.
Otherwise, our holdovers formed the rest of the Top 10 as Hotel Trannsylvania 2 led the pack with 12.6 million as this still the biggest release of the fall season so far, but not for much longer as The Martian should pass it by this weekend. Pan fell incredibly hard to about 5 million in it's second weekend as I contemplate whether I should post a review for this hilarious failure. The Intern, Sicario, and The Scorch Trials also finished between the 4 to 2 million range as these will all be gone by this weekend from our Top 10. The other new release that is worth honestly nothing to note was Woodlawn as it finished 9th with 4 million. Woodlawn is a faith based movie and despite my religious beliefs, it's not even worth reporting on these unless they are as big as War Room was a few months ago. When these movies don't even bother advertising themselves, why should I give them a full recap? Alas, these are still profitable with such low budgets.
This Weekend:
Now onto our new releases/expansions, starting with:
Steve Jobs
This is probably going to be our number one movie this weekend when it comes to box office. It's been destroying in limited release with already over 2 million and almost cracking the Top 10 last weekend. Universal has been playing this smart and now with it's nationwide expansion, it will be interesting to see how well this does. It has a lot working in it's favor with an Oscar pedigree cast from director (Danny Boyle) to writers (Aaron Sorkin) to casting (Michael Fassbender, Kate Winslet....Seth Rogen!?!). I can see this performing along the same lines as The Social Network did with about 20 million opening weekend and holding very well as the weeks come due to it's very positive reviews. Oscar consideration is definitely warranted as we are actually going to have a very deep Academy Award film season ahead of us.
.....well there is our one positive review film of the weekend. The rest of our list consists of nothing higher than 23% as of this writing on Rotten Tomatoes. You have been warned.
The Last Witch Hunter
If any of our other contenders have any chance of challenging Steve Jobs and our holdover group of Goosebumps and The Martian, it's this. Vin Diesel has had a career renaissance of sorts ever since returning to the Fast and Furious franchise. So this will be a true test of seeing how marketable he actually is without his bevy of franchises. I think this has a chance. After all, this reminds me a lot of that Dracula remake we got last year shot for shot. Plus with it being released during a prime month for these sorts of movies, it has a chance. I'm giving this about 17-18 million, but this could end up being either higher or lower. Tough to project because who knows if Vin Diesel's fan base is still relevant outside of said franchises.
Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension
Being billed as the final Paranormal Activity movie is definitely a marketing ploy if I've ever seen one. Although, I truly believe this has to be the last one. With how quickly this franchise fell in profitability after the third movie, it's audience finally caught onto the gimmicky nature of this found footage franchise. Paramount has absolutely no faith that this will be profitable, hence why it's going straight to Video on Demand two-three weeks after it's release. So if the movie studio is willing to bail that quickly, why shouldn't it's audience? I'm giving this 10 million this weekend only because of it's October release date. Wouldn't surprise me if this made less to be honest.
Jem and the Holograms
Wow has the intense internet hatred for this not bare well for my initial forecast. I have seriously seen nothing but people mocking this ever since it's trailer debuted back in May. Jason Moore bailed on the Pitch Perfect sequel for this? Terrible move. I don't think this is going to perform as badly as the internet is reacting to this though. Still not good enough to make back it's budget though, but I'm giving it 8 million this weekend because it's young female target audience has to show up for this....right? This will definitely be Universal's biggest flop from 2015, which just goes to show how massive of a year they had.
Rock the Kasbah
I'm absolutely stunned this is from the director of Rain Man. I'm absolutely stunned this is a Bill Murray star vehicle. Most stunning of all, this is one of the worst reviewed wide releases of 2015. Most puzzling of all is why this is getting a wide release to begin with. I guess Open Road Films thought that Bill Murray would have a huge enough following to make this profitable? Hell no. Bill Murray may be awesome, but he rarely does commercialized films like this anymore as a starring vehicle. If he does, it's in a supporting role. Awful decisions all around as I expect this to make 5 million opening weekend and barely anything else after that. I'm not pissed, but more confused than anything else. What is this? Why?
As for our holdovers as previously mentioned, I expect Goosebumps and The Martian to still be in the play for audiences with drops around the 15-14 million area respectively. Hotel Transylvania 2 should still make about 8 million or so being the only animated movie on the market having it's perks once again. Meanwhile Bridge of Spies should drop to about 9 million because it's the best reviewed movie on the market and it's target audience likes that. Crimson Peak on the other hand could drop above 60 percent due to so many other horror movies coming out this weekend to about 5 or 6 million.
Definitely an over saturated market right now so it will be interesting to see what audiences pay to see this weekend.
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