Friday, October 30, 2015

Box Office Forecast 10/30/15-11/1/2015

So will the box office recover after one of the worst weekends in box office history?  Signs are pointing to...probably not.

Last Weekend's Recap:

Where do I start?  I am not the only person who clearly overestimated how last weekend would go, but man.  Bombs.  Bombs galore.  Which lead to our top three being the repeat pairing of The Martian, Goosebumps, and Bridge of Spies.  The former were neck and neck being separated by 15.7 to 15.5 million respectively.  The latter had the best hold in the entire Top 10 with dropping nearly a quarter percent over last weekend.  I am not surprised since the older demographic it was aiming for would show up when they heard the magnificent reviews.  It's the same reason The Martian is holding so well.  Both of these movies will definitely be in competition for Oscar in the months to come.  Goosebumps will earn enough to warrant a sequel.

Now to the bombs.  The Last Witch Hunter only earned 10.8 million.  I wasn't expecting it to do gangbusters, but for a 80 million production budget and one of the biggest action stars on the planet, one would expect this to at least double what it did.  You hear that sound?  That's the sound of Vin Diesel signing for even more Fast and Furious movies.  The last Paranormal Activity earned 8 million.  That's less than half of the most recent from the franchise.  Yeah it's still technically profitable, but it's the nail in the coffin for the franchise to end (at least in cinemas, if anymore sequels come out, they definitely won't be in cinemas).  The only other release that even cracked the Top 10 was expansion Steve Jobs.  I thought for sure it would be number one after how amazing it was doing in limited release, but only made 7 million.  However, I don't think all hope is loss yet.  It can still hold well especially with Michael Fassbender's hopeful nomination for Best Actor.  But yeah, HUGE disappointment.  This was just poor scheduling for it's expansion.  Two weeks from now would have been much better since nothing worth noting is coming out between Bond and Hunger Games.  Universal isn't hurt by this in comparison to their OTHER release that came out this weekend, but still a massive disappointment box office wise.

Before we talk about those OTHER releases though, our holdovers that rounded out the Top 10.  Hotel Transylvania 2 spends it's fifth weekend in the Top 5 with 8.8 million.  Crimson Peak made what I thought it would proving the only thing I got right with 5.6 million.  The Intern finished ninth with 3.8 million and Sicario finished tenth with 2.8 million.  Both of these have to be gone by next weekend, right?

Our OTHER two releases are a certain kind of special.  They are officially two of the ten worst nationwide openings of all time.  Rock the Kasbah made 1.4 million and Jem and the Holograms made 1.3 million.  Both are huge financial burdens that will go down in history.  You'll soon find these in your local Wal-Mart discount bin for $1.99 this time next year....maybe even less time.  Embarrassing.

This Weekend:


Our Brand is Crisis

Our name is terrible.  Obvious joke aside, this reeks of failed Oscar bait.  I know that there is an audience for political satire comedies, but even with Sandra Bullock's involvement, this is doing absolutely nothing to pull in anyone.  Maybe if this came out one year later, there would be a proper audience for it due to election season.  Honestly, look at The Campaign.  That was successful because of it coming out near the 2012 presidential election.  Now look at...say Man of the Year.  That same brand of comedy as this film, except starring Robin Williams.  That came out nearly nine years ago and was terribly forgettable.  Only reason I remember this was due to another column I read about this film in.  Bottom line, doesn't matter who your star is all the time.  Subject matter is equally as important and this isn't doing anything to make anyone care.  Also, nice to see you Billy Bob Thornton.  I guess you're still relevant somehow.  You haven't mattered in years and when you are one of the main promoted stars, that's reeking of desperation.  I'm guessing this makes 6 million just because of Bullock still being an A list talent.  She deserves far better though.



Burnt

Fun fact. This is the second Bradley Cooper/Sienna Miller collaboration in the past year, with the first being American Sniper. This is also the second Bradley Cooper kitchen drama in the past fifteen years. He was the star of a Fox show called Kitchen Confidential.  This is also going to be the second Bradley Cooper disappointment in the past year.  Yeah nothing about this is appealing.  If I wanted to watch a kitchen chef be melodramatic and cuss out people, I would watch Hell's Kitchen.  Honestly, cut and paste a majority of what I just said for Our Brand Is Crisis and you can apply it here too.  Same box office prediction too with 6 million because Bradley Cooper is an A-list talent (hell 10 million dollars worth of people paid to see Aloha opening weekend) but he deserves better too.



Scout's Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse

....who seriously wants to see this.  Really Paramount?  Honestly, it's got....a slightly morbid curious concept to it, but when it all boils down...that's it.  It's trying to go for that Zombieland target audience, but failing miserably with absolutely nobody worth paying to see (although Cloris Leachman deserves far better at her age).  And just like that Paranormal Activity release last weekend, Paramount is sending this straight to Video On Demand two weeks after it's release, so they have absolutely no hope that anyone will pay to see this in theaters, hence the small wide release count.  I'm giving this 2 million and that's generous.  It honestly wouldn't surprise me at all if this joins Rock the Kasbah and Jem in the Bottom 10 wide releases of all time.


As for our holdover, it's going to be another weekend of Goosebumps vs The Martian for the top crown.  I'm giving it to The Martian again though...just slightly like last weekend.  Because when it comes down to it, The Martian has been holding very well all month, while Goosebumps does have Halloween in it's favor, it won't matter when the new month starts on a Sunday.  Plus the same family audience will be trick or treating on Saturday.  Bridge of Spies will come in third with around 8 million.  Hotel Transylvania could make between 6-5 million like two of our new releases.  Everything else doesn't matter because it will make 4 million or less (The Last Witch Hunter, Paranormal Activity, Steve Jobs, and Crimson Peak).

While this weekend will be doom and gloom, the box office next weekend will liven things up for sure as Spectre and The Peanuts Movie will make 50 million, hell even more possibly.

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