Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Movie Talk: How Big Will The Force Awakens Be?

Hey look.  Three blog entries as of now.  That is one more entry than my previous two attempts at blogging.

So you've already seen one post talking about music.  Let's talk about movies in this new segment called...how original...Movie Talk.  Just like in Music Talk, I will be talking about news, random thoughts that I might be having, movie announcements, you know anything of that nature.  Now unlike this past week's Music Talk, I do have an individual topic for Movie Talk.  It's all the internet seems to be talking about when it comes to movie news this week.  Yes folks, I am going to talk about the behemoth that will be Star Wars: The Force Awakens.



A prime trailer release on Monday Night Football.  28 million views in one day on YouTube.  Breaking advanced ticket sales records.  Setting new IMAX screening standards.  Guys, we're looking at a box office performance that will be historic.  This will be one of the biggest box office performers of all time.  It has A LOT going for it...but here is where things get interesting.  Will the high demand for this new Star Wars movie translate to it being the #1 domestic box office earner of all time, let alone the #1 of 2015?

See this is tricky to project and it will be for the coming months.  Do I think this can break Jurassic World's opening weekend record of 208 million?  Absolutely.  These supremely high advanced ticket sales are probably going to secure that record is going down.  But this is where I feel some forecasters are overlooking.  With all this high demand for opening weekend, this movie is going to be supremely front loaded.  Look no further than the last round of prequels.  The movies had high demand and fell at a rapid rate weekends afterwards.  Plus with the fact that the Star Wars fan base is as polarizing as they come, this isn't as open to the public as Jurassic World was earlier this year.  This sequel is obvious fan service to fanboys only.  What Jurassic World did that The Force Awakens doesn't have the capability of doing is having an accessible box office megastar in Chris Pratt that fans would pay to see and relaunching the Jurassic Park franchise to not be direct fan service minus a few key references to the original Jurassic Park.

Now a ten year break between Star Wars movies plus the fact that this is going to be a true sequel to the original trilogy, I'll admit, I might be underestimating The Force and how this will do.  Do I personally want this to be the all time record breaker everyone wants this to be?  Hell yes.  I am an arms wide open fanboy through and through.  I'll be there opening night with either my Chewbacca or Vader shirt and nerding the hell out with my friends while hoping this is better than the prequels that do get hated on too much.

I just don't see this making 800 million, let alone 650 million domestically.  Now if you wanted to talk 500 and maybe 600 million, I'd be willing to talk.  This is definitely going to be a Top 5 domestic performer of all time, but this is going to be a crowded market place this winter.  Go check the release date list, this Nov and Dec is going to be stacked with Bond, Pixar, Peanuts, the final Hunger Games, big comedies, Oscar movies with big name stars, a new Chipmunks movie (it's the only new family movie this Dec, it's going to be big whether we want it to be or not).  The Force Awakens will be the big dog on the market, but it will have to fight it's counter programming adversaries that Jurassic World really didn't have to go up against this past June.

2015 has been a box office year for the record books.  The fact that I'm even making a counter debate post about how big the new Star Wars movie will or won't be just goes to show how massive this year has been financially.  Ten months ago, the fan voted most anticipated movie of 2015 was The Force Awakens.  Maybe my gut instinct will be wrong, the winter box office season has surprised us all in the past.  One thing is for certain though.  Disney is about to test to see how loyal the Star Wars fan base truly is with new Star Wars movies scheduled every year for the next five years.  Be prepared to see how strong the force truly is with this one.

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