Friday, November 13, 2015

Box Office Forecast: 11/13/15-11/15/15

So I ended up missing Movie Talk again.  Sorry, but I was burned out after writing three blog posts back to back to back.  But hey, after two days off from writing, let's do the recap...too bad the new releases feel as lifeless as last month.

Last Weekend's Recap:

Before we go over the dreck, let's talk about how great it was to see the box office so alive last weekend.  Our new number one was, as expected, Spectre.  It was obviously impossible to reach Skyfall's heights, but Spectre still made the second highest opening weekend in Bond franchise history with 70 million.  I do think the analysts who consider this disappointing need to tamper their expectations a bit.  Of course it's going to be hard to make this one profitable because Sony stupidly spent 250 million at least to make this for some god forsaken reason.  But the fact of the matter is that Skyfall was Bond's 50th anniversary film, had an amazing Bond film name, and featured a supremely popular Adele song as the theme.  No way in hell was this going to make 300 million, but I don't think 200 million is out of the question for 007's latest venture.  We'll see how it holds up the weeks ahead, especially with the final Hunger Games right around the corner.

Our second place feature was Peanuts as it made 44 million.  I don't think this is a bad start either. Especially for a franchise that hasn't been as popular in nearly fifteen-twenty years.  I knew expectations had to be tampered a bit with predicting 50 million plus because rarely do animated films have 50 plus million opening weekends unless it has the market to itself, which Peanuts did not.  That being said, I am all but positive the legs for this movie will be much stronger over the next few weekends.  Hell, this can still hold up well past Thanksgiving because of all those Peanut holiday specials making this more relevant around holiday season.  Great start for Fox and Blue Sky as they have a new franchise in the making for them.

Honestly the rest of the box office really isn't worth reporting on because so much crud, but I will make a few notes.  The Martian had a damn solid hold, especially against the new competition and finished third with 9 million.  That's amazing that it fell barely over 20 percent in it's sixth weekend.  Biggest hit of the fall season for now and awards season will keep this one going strong for awhile.  That movie I just wrote a review for came in fourth with 7 million as I contributed to keep this one still in the Top 5.  Fifth went to Bridge of Spies with 6 million as this one should still be relevant come awards season as well.  Sixth is Hotel Transylvania 2 as this one keeps outperforming the already popular original with 4 million.  Seventh is Burnt with 3 million.  Should be gone soon.  Eighth is The Last Witch Hunter with 2 million.  Should be gone soon.  Ninth is surprisingly the return of The Intern with 2 million because of all the amazing flops these past two weekends.  This has somehow made 71 million after a so-so opening weekend.  The final Paranormal Activity is tenth with 1 million.  Goodbye.


This Weekend:



The 33

You know I'm LEGITIMATELY surprised that this is our biggest release this weekend.  What stupid releasing for any of our major box office releases that flop over the next few weeks for not releasing it this weekend because when your biggest title is failed Oscar bait, you know you missed a chance at an additional 5-10 million at least.  The second weekend of November is usually successful for major blockbusters for a reason.

That being said, this had a chance if more effort was put into it.  I like the primarily Hispanic casting choice because for an event like the Chilean mine collapse, you need to cast carefully.  Sadly, this had potential before all the negative word of mouth regarding reviews for this soured this project's hopefuls incredibly.  But I still give this a chance to make some money before it falls away into irrelevant Oscar hopeful category.  I'm guessing 7 million.




Love The Coopers

Now here's a film that I could be underestimating entirely.  Holiday films tend to be really popular around November and December because who doesn't love the spirit of Christmas?  Movie goers tend to eat up holiday films like crazy.  Especially when they have big named stars like Diane Keaton, John Goodman, Ed Helms, Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Wilde.  Where could this possibly go wrong?

How about the fact that this looks incredibly terrible.  The trailers give it away that this movie is limp, lifeless, and most importantly: unfunny.  I mean I can't be the only one that thinks that, right?  If you don't believe me, this movie is getting pounded to death by critics and the almighty Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic.  Because society loves to reap the benefits of film review sites to save them the ten dollars for a ticket.

But hey, there are people out there that made terrible Christmas movies like Christmas With the Kranks and Deck the Halls box office hits.  Please America, save yourselves the money and wait for the possibly better Christmas movie The Night Before next weekend.  I'm guessing 6 million opening weekend because I have faith in society.

I guess that's everything, now onto.....what?  There is another wide release this weekend?



My All-American

What....how?  How is this possible?  I've at least seen trailers and ad spots for everything else I've covered on this blog.  Even that Scouts vs Zombies movie and Rock the Kasbah.  How the hell have I never seen a single advertisement for this?  I watch television.  I go to the movies.  I even have that fucking trailers app for my smart phone and this somehow passed my radar entirely.  Clearly Clarius Entertainment has no faith in this being successful hence the microscopic 1500 theater wide release count.  I don't know....2 million?  Wouldn't surprise me at all if this is less.

That leaves our holdovers and I think it will be a much closer race for number one this weekend between Bond and Peanuts.  I still give the edge to Spectre making 33 million this weekend, but Peanuts will be very close because of it's great reviews and family friendly rating with 30 million.  The Martian at this rate will probably still hold well and could possibly still be Top 3 this weekend too with 7 million.  Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps will both make 4 million as Hotel Transylvania 2 and Burnt will round out the Top 10....yes I'm giving that movie I've never heard of a fighting chance to make the Top 10 only because of virtually no competition to hold well otherwise.



Next weekend will be much more lively though with the final Hunger Games becoming one of the biggest releases of 2015, a Seth Rogen/Joseph Gordon-Levitt R-rated Christmas comedy that looks legitimately funny (and that's coming from someone who has grown slightly weary of Rogen's stoner shtick), and Julia Roberts is back with a new thriller The Secret in Their Eyes.  Should be a good one.

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