You'll have to excuse me being a day late on this. I had a busy day yesterday at work and then going to see one of the movies that debuted this weekend last night. I could have sworn I posted this after writing it up last night but I apparently did not. So let's do this thing...a day later...
Last Weekend's Recap:
Our new releases had zero to little impact as expected which means Spectre finished number one again with 34 million. While this one isn't going to fly the heights of Skyfall, this will still be the second biggest Bond ever. It's probably going to earn it's budget back overseas though, seriously Sony why would you spend a quarter billion making this. The Peanuts Movie still held well to finish but not nearly as well as I expected with 24 million. I should have seen this coming in retrospect since Peanuts is not a new property and it already has a built in fanbase. That being said, it should still do well as it's going to be profitable. Third place went to Love the Coopers as this one made a bit more than I expected but thankfully not much with 8 million. We'll see if this still holds up well through the holiday season but my gut instinct is no. The Martian spends it's first weekend not in the top 3 with 7 million as it continue to perform greatly. The 33 underperformed to fifth with 6 million as Warner Brothers has another flop this fall. This studio needs a hit and badly to make up for how many bad releases they've had this year.
Now for the bottom half. Goosebumps and Bridge of Spies both finished with 4 million apiece. Eighth was another new release, but not the one I covered. It was Bollywood movie Prem Ratan Dhan Payo with 2 million. For the record, My All American flopped that badly that a Bollywood movie finished in the domestic top ten above it. Hotel Transylvania 2 came in ninth with 2 million as I expect this to be gone finally with more competition coming. Ten is The Last Witch Hunter and it's done after this. Surprised it lasted in the top ten for four weeks but after seeing how a majority of the new releases have underperformed, I'm not totally surprised.
This Weekend: NOTE - Friday Estimates are available online already but I have not viewed them yet out of respect to give myself a fair chance at predicting.
Mockingjay Part 2
So it's the end of an era. No more Hunger Games movies and this will be the last time Lionsgate has a true smash hit franchise for awhile probably. The Hunger Games franchise will forever be known for being far more powerful than anyone ever expected it to be. Take a look at how the Harry Potter movies and Twilight performed. Both movie franchises had far bigger fan bases and were lucky to crack 300 million for one or two movies. Then we have lesser known Hunger Games that had an Academy Award winning actress with no real box office appeal and an interesting concept that was a hard sell. Now, these movies are outperforming by margins over the other two franchises and Jennifer Lawrence is one of the biggest names in Hollywood. They say timing is everything and I can't picture a more perfectly timed franchise and casting choice than The Hunger Games. So of course Lionsgate wanted to make as much money as possible seeing how the first two made a combined 830 million plus domestic and a ton more worldwide. Hence the splitting of the last book to two movies dad that really needs to cease from existing.
So after Part 1 the boring stuff, we now have Part 2 the action. This will be an interesting performer for sure. Primarily because Part 1 did not break 400 million domestic like it's predecessors. Probably due to so-so reviews, but despite the less than expected opening, Part 1 still ended up holding very well and made 335 million domestic. Primarily because it had no real competition to take away viewership over the Christmas box office bonanza. But this year is different. While the only real competition Part 1 had was the final Hobbit movie. Part 2 is going to have tons of competitors in the forms of Pixar, The Chipmunks, big name holiday comedies...and oh yeah STAR WARS. While Part 1 had other counter programming, it's nowhere near as strong as this year's.
So yeah it will be interesting to see the long term prognosis for Part 2, but I still expect a 120 million opening weekend. How it does after this weekend though will be a mystery.
The Night Before
I saw this movie last night due to sellouts for Mockingjay. So I'll keep this short. It's funny, yet cliched. Full review will come in a couple days.
As for the prognosis on how this will perform. I get that Christmas comedies usually come out in November but I can't help but feel that this could have done better if this had come out last weekend. Competing the same weekend as one of the year's biggest movies seems like a bit of a misfire in scheduling. I think the decent reviews can give this some solid legs to keep it around until Christmas, but I definitely think money was left on the table in terms of making even more.
So instead of the 20 million this could have made with better scheduling, I think this will more than likely open with about 12 million.
Secret in Their Eyes
So this is apparently a remake of an Academy Award winning foreign film. Did not know that since it looks like every other thriller of the past five years or so. This stars Julia Roberts, who is one of the more interesting A listers in Hollywood. She is very famous and has an audience...but for some reason doesn't want to be famous by showing up in as little movies as possible. I guess it's cool to see that even the biggest stars don't really want to be stars and live normal lives like the rest of us.
Roberts star power aside, it wouldn't surprise me at all if this flops. I've seen so little publicity and plus as Bradley Cooper, Sandra Bullock, and so many more have proven to us this fall, it doesn't matter who you are. If your movie looks boring, it will flop. And this looks as boring as the rest and the reviews aren't as good either. I will give it 7 million because it's Julia Roberts and maybe people still want to see her since it's a rarity when she does act. But it wouldn't surprise me if it's less.
As for holdovers, Spectre should still do ok and make 16 million. Peanuts should too although I don't know if it's going to get a sequel anymore after seeing it. Let it be unless you have an actual idea and not a cash in Blue Sky. I'm guessing 14 million. The Martian could continue to hold well with 5 million. As for the rest? I'll guess Love the Coopers with 4 million, The 33 with 3 million (heh), and the Top 10 rounding out with Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps with 2 million.
Come back next time when this should be on time...and earlier since it's Thanksgiving. Which means earlier projections because it's a holiday weekend and more releases are coming along with it.
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