Box Office Forecast 11/6/2015-11/8/2015

Sorry for no Movie Talk this Wednesday.  I had a health related problem that preoccupied my blog time as well as a few other things that I'd rather not get into.  Hope you guys understand.

It's holiday box office time as this is the start of the end of the year box office boom.  November and December are famous for having summer box office caliber opening weekends as multiple mega releases as well as Oscar caliber films.  So after an incredibly rough October, this is just what the box office needs right now.  Two huge films that have the potential to open over 50 million or more this weekend.  Let's get it started.

Last Weekend's Recap:

It sucked.

The Martian, Goosebumps, and Bridge of Spies once again repeated the top three with 11, 10, and 8 million respectively. Congrats to all of them, but holy crap is the box office just in unbelievable bad shape right now.  You want to know the only successful October releases this month?  You're looking at them.  Hotel Transylvania finished fourth with 6 million as it's also a winner this fall because nothing else wants to bother competing.  Plus it shows Sandler still has a following.   Now onto the rest of the not even worth talking about.  The Last Witch Hunter collapsed but held better than the rest of the releases.   It will probably end with 25-30 million domestic.  Our highest new release Burnt finished sixth with 5 million.  About one million less than I expected it to be.  Called this flopping.  Paranormal Activity fell hard to only 3 million and it probably won't make anymore than 17-18 million.  Our Brand is Crisis finished in eighth and man this is officially the worst performing movie of Sandra Bullock's career.  Worst opening ever with 3 million and this is a mega bomb if I've ever seen one.  Crimson Peak also made 3 million and finished ninth.  Not much left to say about this one's performance.  And Steve Jobs finished tenth with 2 million.  Yeah this one's Oscar hopes are nearly done except for Michael Fassbender.

Yeah not much else to say about this.  Thank god for this weekend.

This Weekend:

Spectre

Bond is back.  This is the follow up to the most successful performing James Bond movie ever in Skyfall and this is also Daniel Craig's last James Bond movie....maybe...is it...he keeps saying it is but then backtracks to confuse the hell out of me.  I don't even know anymore.  Anyway, Skyfall was a monster opening with 90 million and going on to gross 300 million domestic.  That's nearly double the highest grossing James Bond movie prior.  So no wonder they brought back nearly everyone involved with Skyfall to make Spectre except bring in Christoph Waltz as the new Bond villain (dream casting tbh) and Dave Batista as a villainous henchman (huge wrestling fan that makes me glad to see him get launched to the big time).  However, despite all this, I don't think this will be as successful as Skyfall.  Primarily because this looks darker than the other and also the reviews for this are not nearly as strong.  Regardless, I still think this will be good enough to make 75 million or so.  We'll wait and see.

Peanuts

Now this one, I'm a little unsure of.  Don't get me wrong, I think this is still going to be big.  Families need a new movie to see and Peanuts has over fifty years of property value.  Also the reviews for this are great.  However, some forecasters are unsure and think this won't be nearly as big as predicted...and I can kinda see it.  The Peanuts films were never that large at the box office in the past and who knows how many kids are actually interested in seeing this.  Of course me on the other hand, I completely disagree with those other forecasters.  Peanuts has aged well to the point that I'm sure the youth are as excited to see this as much as the older demographic.  Parents will want to take their kids to see Charlie Brown and friends and I'm certain this will be a great performer.  However, I'm going to be safe and say 42 million opening weekend just because Disney knows how to market these movies better when it comes to this time frame and Fox doesn't.  Fox could have marketed this to the point that I would feel more confident about a 50 plus opening weekend.

Everything else will be in a dogfight for relevancy.  I think The Martian can still make 7 million this weekend, but everything else will be around 5 million or less.  If you want my guess from greatest chance to still be profitable to least, well here ya go:

4. Goosebumps

5. Bridge of Spies

6. Hotel Transylvania 2

7. Burnt

8. The Last Witch Hunter

9. Paranormal Activity

10. Our Brand is Crisis